I know I've not posted anything about this in a while, but it occurred to me that the February crash of the institutions of SL, partly caused by the Linden crackdown, occurred almost perfectly 4 to 6 months prior to the beginning of the most recent major market meltdowns.
I had in August of 07 stated to a few friends and in a class that due to SL being based on extra derivative income from the North American market that the in-world markets and retailing would be highly affected by an economic crisis, but I had not quite expected it to be as predictive as it has been.
In hindsight, I almost wish I had given myself more credibility in this theory and sold off my real portfolio based on those indicators. I'd be a few thousand richer.
Additionally, I once stated that the Virtual Markets probably would hold about the same level of risk as actual markets. Due to the rabid mismanagement of wall street what was a half-hearted estimation of the bureaucracy in this nation responsible for providing for corporate governance.. proved deadly accurate.
I do not expect the predictive nature of the SL markets to continue since the Linden Crackdown practically destroyed the net worth in those markets, but I'll be watching this for more correlative indicators.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
SL as a predictive market.
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3 comments:
Would you likewise expect, then, when the SL markets begin to recover that we'd see a pickup in the US economy as well? I think there's also an argument that SL is simply more grossly affected by RL events, and so recessions hit faster but also stay longer.
I would expect it to yes, but if my assumptions are right it will take a very long time.
Additionally, I might note, I believe Cliff actually owes me the opportunity to see him in a party dress sometime I'm on second life again based on the fact I don't believe OMG ever became profitable.. based on its share value.
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