Saturday, December 22, 2007

IPO Review for the Ancapistan Exchange.

A prior commenter brought to my attention an observation about ACE, that many of the IPOs appeared to them to be fairly untested and the standards of the exchange to be at risk. That said, the asked me to comment on my thoughts of the companies, their prospects, and their business propositions. That said, I am now going to begin an alphabetical review of the IPOs currently listed on that exchange at this time.

Disclosure: As policy, DGD buys a small amount of all ipos, larger amounts of promising IPOs, and day trades the one that it buys small amounts of. Therefore, DGD already has at least a minimal interest in all these companies. However, I have never let that skew my presentation of judgment to the public.

In alphabetical order they are:

ACE:Prospectus. Value Proposition: Exchange operations.

Shares to issue publicly7,700,000
IPO shares sold to date816,565
IPO shares remaining6,883,435
Total shares in company16,000,000

ACE is an offering of ownership in the exchange operations themselves. It is not uncommon for stock exchanges to raise funds initially, the purpose of the funds is to establish a bank on which trading can take place and to allow for ease of deposits and withdraws of new clients as well as to cover some moderate expenses the exchange may witness during the initial stages of operation. The IPO is well written and recognizes the weakness in the exchange market with 4 pre-established existing competitor exchanges. Typically, a well managed exchange is a stable investment. The risk is that poor management will allow anyone access to the market's capitol, subjecting it and shareholders to fraud that could potentially break the value of hte exchange itself and drive its clients away. Though ACE is a strong offer being the operations of the exchange itself whose revenues would be obvious to the public in the form of the commisions on trading, it could be undermined by the operations and management of its landlord BNT whose CEO, Intlibber Brautigan, co-owns both ACE and BNT. Proper management, however, could bring both companies to extraordinary prosperity since BNT has a large asset base. Time will tell where these futures will go but BNT has greater freedom of action trading on its own exchange. However, with greater power and ability comes greater responsibility. Abuse and mismanagement or over-reaching.. can be lethal. Slow and steady is the course to progress.

BAM:Prospectus: Value Proposition: Acquisitions And Mergers, rebuilding broken companies after buying them out.
Shares to issue publicly1,000,000
IPO shares sold to date25,981
IPO shares remaining974,019
Total shares in company2,200,000


Travis Ristow is the CEO of this company and in my eyes the CEO is and makes the company in Second Life. He's been a friend of mine and pretty reliable when it comes to the operations of his existing company on ISE, BCX Bank. DGD also owns property on one of his estates and it turns a steady profit running a vendor booth next to his banking operations. Travis seems pretty business savvy, but a business in Acquisitions and Mergers within Second Life exposes itself to a lot of risk. At the same time, there is also a significant amount of room for reward. Time will tell if this venture is profitable, but there is potential here. It all depends on how the risk is managed and that is true about any investment firm. I can't help feel slightly skeptical though for business operators who have more than one operation listed and their ability to keep financing separate. You would imagine they could use the strategy for the new business for their existing operations. That said, I still think this corporation may have a future if it is executed on correctly.

FWD:Prospectus: Value Proposition: Content and Marketing Information provider.
Shares to issue publicly800,000
IPO shares sold to date12,597
IPO shares remaining787,403
Total shares in company2,000,000

I do not know much about the insiders of this particular company, Never met the CEO or any of their staff in second life. This worries me. I see a lot of folks around the SL Finance communities and I invest with only who I trust or who I've seen running existing business operations and am aware of their ability to manage their operations. That said, I can't make a judgment on this company much based on its leadership. However, I can say that the value proposition is potentially viable. The idea of providing a "Newbie Haven" in order to exploit marketing contacts and collect data as well as to attract vendors is far from uncommon in Second Life. The real question about this company is how will it distinguish itself from its many other competitors? What will make it succeed? How motivated are the executives? I've only seen a few operations like this last any amount of time and I'm very skeptical about its prospects, but at the same time I feel compelled to give people I do not know an opportunity to prove themselves. This investment has a significant risk, versus reward factor and may not be for the faint of heart.

OIG: Prospectus: Value Proposition: Various investments including those in real life.
Shares to issue publicly7,000,000
IPO shares sold to date61,619
IPO shares remaining6,938,381
Total shares in company12,000,000

Basing a company on RL investments has repeatedly proven catastrophic in Second Life. DGD has a policy of avoiding them because of this, and because of the potential for basing your security's performance on RL securities risks breaching REAL UNITED STATES SECURITIES LAWS which clearly state that any asset that is "fungible" is no longer just a game, but a real.. trading security. I cannot trade my DGD stock for cash at the cashier's counter or barter it for food. I could however, take my ford stock and theoretically sign it into my grocer's name for food if I have the certificate and they're willing to accept that trade. That said, I would not be surprised if this company is not shut down.. or does not even get off the ground. If it does, I'll day trade it, but won't likely own much of it for fear of the U.S. Attorney General's office shutting it down and I losing all linden value. Also, the biggest bank collapse in SL history (Ginko Bank) resulted from a Brazilian that was trying to make revenues from his deposits in RL securities. It amazes me that this CEO account is listed as being registered from Brazil. Same person? In SL, how do you know? I'd advise most investors to avoid this issue like the plague unless you're just day trading. Long term positions are at significant risk of catastrophic loss.

OMG: Prospectus:
Shares to issue publicly1,200,000
IPO shares sold to date154,887
IPO shares remaining1,045,113
Total shares in company3,000,000

This prospectus was generally okay with me as there are many successful clothing entities in SL, just depends on the talent of the artist. This is what changed everything:

Use of Capital

Use of Start-up Capital
L$700,000 - Labor for designing clothes *$2,777 usd*
L$350,000 - Strong Marketing Campaign for months 1-6
L$150,000 - Misc. costs (land tier, events, prizes/camping, etc)

If anyone tell me why in Second Life anyone should be paid up front $2,777 us dollars for the design of clothing when I can make a sweatshirt for free, I'll reverse my decision that this is a scam.

Shortened Product line description:
Lines of clothing equalling around 140-150 different outfits.

So they're charging shareholders 20 USD per outfit that may, or may not sell. I'll let the investors make the decision on this one, it could pay out, but I don't anticipating that recapping its initial investment value any time soon especially with the added costs listed that are not one time, but sustained long term costs.

"Someone pay me 2777, I'll make 140-150 lines of clothes for 2777!!! And then put them in shops for you.. and they'll sit there.. and they'll stare at you.. and they'll stare at you.. and you'll own it all! And you'll have to pay for its rental spaces each month so you won't really make that much money on it. Oh, and thanks for the 2777 USD!"

Sorry. Have to mock it just a little.

The use of capital needs greatly expanded upon and I think investors deserve more.

Summary in response to the comment here by an anonymous user:

Is ACE rushing IPOs out the door for growth? Out of these 5, I'd strongly question 2, and have some clarifications to ask of a third. I'd say, yes they are pushing things a bit and allowing their standards to slip? Yes. I believe they are. If they want to be anything as successful as their predecessor exchanges they must be more selective. In my time allowing IPOs at AVIX (what CAPEX was before it was purchased). I eliminated at minimum 90% of all IPO proposals. Of the few listed on CAPEX now, several were not even approved on my watch and only one company has ever failed that I allowed to list, (CYB). Skepticism is healthy, an exchange showing a lack of it, is putting themselves and their clients at significant risk of permanent, bad will and loss.

Thank you for your inquiry Anonymous. Anyone whose corporation is listed in this blog who would like to clarify their position of their company in the comments, please feel free to do so. We all know I am not a Nazi, I encourage free speech 100% so long as it is constructive and non-derogatory dialogs.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great summary and analysis. Thank you for posting this.

Kailen Juran said...

Scepticism is indeed healthy, and I'm glad that investors are generally showing that. It seems that the days where IPOs sell out in a few minutes may have passed in favour of watching to see how the companies begin operations. I suppose that is the counter-balance to the rushed-to-market IPO.

Anonymous said...

Maelstrom, surely the issues you have with OMG are those that will occur with any retail venture in SL - namely that you have to design and make something before you can sell it.

Now unless the designers are willing to work for free, or for a percentage of sales or something, then it's reasonable for them to expect to be paid. The question then moves to - is their output worth what you pay them?

Yes, you can make a free tshirt, but I'm unlikely to be willing to pay Lindens for it. But I might be willing to pay for fabulous textures, great designs, wonderfully crafted prim attachments etc. I already have my favourite fashion boutiques - there's no reason OMG can't blow me away too.

However, I agree that more information is needed. Does OMG have top-notch designers lined up? Let's see some samples then! What will their pricing strategy be - top of the market, or cheap and cheerful?

I'd welcome your (and everyone's) thoughts on the viability of large retailing businesses in SL.

Maelstrom said...

Ragged Delec: I know how the retail tshirt industry has faired even with good designed marketed by folks who know what they're doing.

OMG's pay out to product line ratio would likely not recap during the next 5 years given other expenses of operation.. if not run red.

Anonymous said...

No, I'm afraid you're going to have to crunch some numbers, rather than make assertions.

700,000$L for 140 outfits is a design cost of 5000$L per outfit. Let's say you put them up for sale at 1200$L each (which is perfectly reasonable for a middle market piece of designer clothing).

You want to recoup the design costs in a year, by selling your clothes in 10 shops, each of which costs you 300$L per month in rent.

So your total cost of sales for 1 year is 736000L$, without any advertising etc.

To break even, you now have to sell 614 outfits over the course of the year. That's 52 per month, or 5 per month per shop.

That doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

For the sake of argument, make it up to a round 1,000,000$L to cover advertising, promotion etc.

That makes your break even point 833 sales, or just under 70 per month, or 7 per month per shop.

After your first year your design cost has been recouped. Your break even level is now 1 outfit every 4 months per shop. Anything more is pure profit.

=======

I can't really see your problem here Maelstrom. You may not spend much on clothes in SL, but there are plenty of us who do. This seems like a perfectly sound business plan *IF* they spend the 700,000 on getting top-notch designers to deliver quality outfits.

If you object to this venture, surely you are saying there is no room for branded retail in SL, beyond lone traders selling their own designs?

Disclosure: I have purchased fewer than 5000 OMG shares in the IPO.

Anonymous said...

Ragged,

My problem with OMG is, that it doesn't seem that management has too much of their skin in the game.

If the prospects for this company are so good, why didn't they foot the bill for the design work, and begin marketing their products?

If I liked the products and the marketing approach, I could buy a few shares in thew subsequent IPO.

As it turns out, there are no products and no company to speak of yet. This is more like microlending or early-stage venture capital than an IPO. And for a retail operation, where the margins truly suck. No thanks.

Maelstrom said...

You my dog my assertions of the SL retail t shirt market, but there is one fact which is true. I've had many t shirt vendors who were my renters.. and very few ever drew a crowd.. or rented very long.

Anonymous said...

Mael, you ignorant slut! Ok, that really doesn't work, and its because it is sexist. Are you going to tell me the price of women's clothing is cheap? Have you bought anything for the Mrs. lately? Look around. Google SL High Fashion. Better still, read something other than the stock page. (http://lindenlifestyles.com/?p=794) The figures are our best guess, from the Prospectus. As Ragged Delec mentioned they are in fact realistic. If you knew anything about it you might even agree. But you have no earthly idea, do you? Casa Del Shai, Vindi Vindeloo, White Lilly, Nyte and Day. Here's a concept for you. What if a fashion house wanted to apply marketing skills, technique and design, in a concerted effort and make it a publicly owned company? Think it would sell? Tell you what. If in 3 months OMG is not turning a profit I will wear a dress all day long for one day. If in 3 months OMG is profitable then you wear a big beautiful party dress for a whole day. What do you say?

Cliff, OMG Director

Maelstrom said...

Well Cliff, based on my experience and analysis, I look forward to seeing you in a frilly dress. :-)

I am not sexist. I just look at profit models and call them as I see them.

OMG's leadership is going to have to give me a reason to believe they can succeed where so many others have failed before I will be convinced.

How to create an SL Tshirt:

Photo shop some nifty graphics and toss it in a texture box for a shirt object. Do some slight adjustments and wala.. instant t-shirt.

Anonymous said...

The gauntlet is thrown.

You will wear the party dress when OMG is profitable?

I have something that will fit your reptile style.

Maelstrom said...

If OMG succeeds, is profitable, and remains in business and profitable for 1 year, I will wear the party on New Years 2009.

Maelstrom said...

Wear the party dress, that is.